By Every five years, Kenya’s election cycle ignites a frenzy of political activity, with candidates unveiling glossy manifestos brimming with promises of transformation, prosperity, and equity. From free education to universal health care, job creation to infrastructure miracles, these pledges resonate deeply with a population yearning for change. Yet, time and again, many of these populist manifestos prove to be little more than rhetorical flourishes, leaving voters disillusioned. So why do Kenyans repeatedly fall for these promises? The answer lies in a mix of socio economic realities, political strategies, and cultural dynamics.
- The Allure of Populist Promises
Populism thrives on simplicity and hope. In a country where 35.7% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2020 (World Bank data), and youth unemployment hovers around 13.8% (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2022), promises of economic upliftment strike a chord. Politicians craft manifestos that tap into these pain points, offering solutions that sound immediate and attainable. Free laptops for schoolchildren, subsidized healthcare, or cash transfers to the poor are packaged as game-changers, even if they lack detailed implementation plans.
These pledges often exploit the public’s desire for quick fixes. For instance, during the 2013 elections, the promise of digital transformation through free laptops for primary school students captivated voters. Similarly, in 2022, the “Hustler Nation” narrative, which promised to empower small-scale traders and informal workers, resonated with millions struggling in Kenya’s informal economy. Such manifestos rarely delve into fiscal realities or logistical challenges, yet their emotional appeal overshadows skepticism.
- Structural and Cultural
Kenya’s political landscape is heavily influenced by ethnic loyalties and patronage networks, which amplify the effectiveness of populist rhetoric. Candidates often tailor their manifestos to specific communities, promising localized benefits like roads, schools, or water projects. These targeted pledges create a sense of inclusion, even if the promises are rarely fulfilled. The 2017 manifesto of one major coalition, for example, included ambitious plans for irrigation projects in arid regions, which appealed to pastoralist communities but saw limited follow-through.
Moreover, Kenya’s low political literacy plays a role. Many voters lack access to reliable information to scrutinize manifestos. According to a 2021 Afrobarometer survey, only 26% of Kenyans regularly follow political news through traditional media, and misinformation on social platforms like WhatsApp and X often fills the gap. Politicians exploit this by using emotive slogans and viral campaigns that prioritize optics over substance.
- The Role of Short-Term Memory
Kenya’s electoral cycle also reveals a pattern of collective amnesia. Post-election euphoria or disappointment often overshadows accountability. By the time the next election arrives, voters are more focused on new promises than past failures. For instance, the unfulfilled pledges of the 2002 NARC government, such as creating 500,000 jobs annually, were quickly forgotten as new candidates emerged with fresh promises in 2007. This cycle repeats because mechanisms for holding leaders accountable—such as civic education or robust oversight institutions—are weak.
- The Politicians’ Playbook
Populist manifestos are not accidental. They are carefully crafted to exploit Kenya’s socio economic vulnerabilities. Politicians invest heavily in branding, using catchy slogans and media campaigns to drown out scrutiny. The 2022 election saw candidates leveraging influencers on X to amplify their promises, with hashtags like #HustlerNation and #Inawezekana trending widely. These campaigns create a perception of momentum, making it harder for voters to question feasibility.
Additionally, manifestos are often deliberately vague. Promises like “empowering the youth” or “improving healthcare” lack measurable targets, making it difficult to hold leaders accountable. A 2018 study by the Institute of Economic Affairs found that only 20% of manifesto promises from the 2013 elections were fully implemented by 2017, yet this did not deter voters from embracing similar pledges in subsequent elections.
- Breaking the Cycle
To move beyond the populist trap, Kenya needs stronger civic education and accountability mechanisms. Voters must be empowered to demand detailed, costed, and time-bound manifestos. Civil society organizations can play a role by fact-checking promises and tracking implementation. Media outlets should prioritize investigative journalism over sensationalism, while platforms like X could be leveraged to foster policy debates rather than propaganda.
Additionally, strengthening institutions like the Auditor-General’s office and anti-corruption agencies can ensure leaders face consequences for unfulfilled promises. Encouraging grassroots movements to hold local leaders accountable—beyond the five-year election cycle—could also shift the focus from rhetoric to results.
Kenyans’ susceptibility to populist manifestos reflects a confluence of hope, desperation, and systemic gaps. While these manifestos offer a vision of a better future, their repeated failure to deliver underscores the need for a more discerning electorate. As Kenya approaches its next election in 2027, breaking this cycle will require voters to prioritize substance over slogans and
demand accountability over promises. Only then can the nation move closer to the transformative change its people deserve.
